Saturday, July 01, 2006

The Suffolk Poll - Why I'm Excited (not what you all think).

Old news, but Deval seems to be winning this close race. You all know it. It's not even news at this point. While I'm sure many of you are expecting a crazy supporter going on and on about this newest poll and writing about how Deval's going to destroy all the competition because he's up by an amount above the margin of error (of more than 5%), in truth the race is still too early and too close for me to be making those exclamations. Any of the candidates can still win this thing.

However, there is a reason for me to be excited. It's not that Deval is winning, it's not the trends (Deval up, Reilly down) and it's not the fact that $3 million spent by Gabs in May *still* hasn't given Gabrieli the poll numbers he'd like...

It's that Deval Patrick is still unknown to 20% of the population. Huh? I'm happy he still has the lowest name recognition? Yes, I am. He's currently winning this race (albiet, potentially by a small margin)... and 1 in 5 people have never heard of the guy! He's the least known candidate and in very good condition to win the race now.

I've written the same thing a bunch of times, but I have to repeat myself: People who know of Deval Patrick tend to support Deval Patrick. As more and more people start to tune into this race, I'm confident they'll see exactly what I've been seeing for months. We need to get this guy in the Governor's Mansion Corner Office!

Then we need to build a modest Governor's house of some kind just in case someone from Great Barrington (in Western Mass) ever decides to run for Governor. After all, I have cousins there. Ya never know!


Aaron said...

I agree that for some time now, it has been the case that when people see DP speak, they tend to like him. However, it has also been the case that the sort of people who would go and see a politician speak 6 months or a year before an election tend to be the sort of people who are ideologically inclined to like DP anyway. As we get closer, more "Mainstream" democrats will begin to pay attention, and they will have reason not to like him.

Ryan Adams said...

Honestly, I just don't think there are is enough evidence to back that claim up. From what I can see (which are numerous anecdotes), Deval really has attracted a lot of people who were tuned out of politics anyway... so a lot of the people who have heard him speak probably don't go to see people speak in general.

Whether that's a more correct statement, or not, I don't know... neither statements have any hardcore evidence to back it up.

However, there HAS been evidence to back up my initial claim: people who know of Deval tend to like him. For months now Deval has been extremely competitive (and sometimes leading) in polls, despite the fact that he has the lowest name recognition, by a good deal too. That's a statistical fact.

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