Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Keeping Composure: Deval's Up Big

I'm not going to crack open the bubbly yet, but things certainly are looking good. SUSA released its poll today - Deval Patrick has 45% of the vote. He's up 15%.

I've said it time and time again, though. I won't trust polls that are radically different until the results are repeated at least once, and preferably by another polling firm. Luckily, the State House News Service is releasing a poll today - soon.

That said, Deval has likely moved up in the polls - and here's why.

1. He did well at the debate and it likely had the most viewers.
2. The post-debate analysis certainly didn't hurt him.
3. The Globe's editorial was both unexpected and well argued.

Update: Today's second poll is out - and has somewhat similar numbers. This time, Deval's up 36-26, with Reilly trailing at 19%.

What does this mean? Deval is up somewhere between 10-15% of the vote. In neither SUSA or the State House poll does Chris Gabrieli crack 30% - for some reason (and I really don't know why) it looks like he could have lost somewhere between 2-5% from the last set of surveys, but it's a small number statistically so who knows if anyone can read much more into that. What is certain is Reilly's numbers have gone way down and Deval's up considerably.

BTW: Charley at BMG explained just why the two polls are somewhat different:

Important caveat: "... Survey of 400 Massachusetts residents, 201 of whom said they’re likely to vote in the Democratic primary."

So SUSA polled 600+ likely voters, while the State House News Service had an even split of 400 voters who were either likely to vote or merely eligible. I'm more inclined to believe SUSA's results, but either way I'm a happy camper.

I still won't crack the bubbly, because Chris Gabrieli has about another million dollars he can spend every day between now and the election (before he maxes out on his 15.36 million dollar joke), but Deval Patrick is in excellent shape to win. I can feel the hope already.

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