Not if, but when Warren's gone - and it's going to happen -I'm sure that evangelicals all over will be pissed. But Obama's done this to himself. It's his problem now and he has to deal with it. The sad thing is it didn't have to happen, because no one would have ever expected Obama to give the nod to a bigot to do the invocation, evangelicals most especially. In fact, it was probably the last thing people would expect.
More to the point, though, does it really matter? Really? Not very much. These people, as a group, will never, ever vote for us. Not today, not tomorrow, not ten years from now. And you know what? I'm okay with that. There is such a thing as a tent that's too big. There's no room for someone in my tent who thinks I should go to hell because I'm physically attracted to guys and not women. As if I had a choice.
Obama clearly forgot Rule Number 1 in politics: You go with the people who brought you there. If you don't do that, you're not going to go far. Rick Warren is only exhibit number one for Obama's presidency: if he were already in office, this distraction would be even more destructive. It's bad enough that he's going to lose a lot of gay support for a very long time, until he gives the glbt community reason to volunteer and donate their funds again.
Gay people vote in Presidential elections at a far more frequent rate than the country at large, including presidential primaries. Upwards of 10% of the democratic vote in a presidential primary comes from the GLBT community. We're a large part of the activist base. We raise huge amounts of money and form the base of many (most?) democratic campaigns - even in local, state elections. In every local campaign I've been a part of glbt people have made up about 50% of the dedicated volunteers. No exaggeration. The fact of the matter is Barack Obama needs the GLBT community if he wants to pass anything from health care reform to a green jobs and energy bill. So if he's going to have to deal with a now pissed-off evangelical base that would never vote for Democrats as a group anyway, then so be it. The GLBT community is far more important to his success than Rick Warren and his ilk any day of the week.