It isn't any secret that I've become a fan of Jamie Eldridge - but I just don't like him, I also think he's going to win. I think I have a pretty good track record of picking races, too (Deval Patrick in March '06, for starters). Here's why Jamie Eldridge is going to win:
- He doesn't need tons of cash. If he can win on public financing, with an opponent, he can beat the well-funded Niki Tsongas & Company.
- Despite several good candidates, the blogosphere has largely recognized Jamie Eldridge as the best, progressive candidate. I've noticed that in races where the blogs are divided (i.e. John Bonifaz's campaign, up until the very end), we don't make much of a difference. However, when the blogs become a chorus of support, it's either useful for the campaign or is reflective of a larger political base of excitement that's seeped into the blogs. Either way, the blogs are singing the praise of Jamie Eldridge and it will make a difference.
- His race is exciting. At the health care forum, I truly witnessed it. Lynne told me it was the same at the Iraq forum. If the progressives and grassroots in the 5th district have lined up behind Eldridge, watch out.
- In a Democracy for America poll, Eldridge's campaign took 70% of the support from DFA's district members. That's 70% out of all five candidates. The great importance of that is he'll probably get their official endorsement and support, but it's definitely a good gauge of his support among progressives too.
- Even Tsongas supporters have conceded to me her support is soft. Just read this guy and wonder if she's going to be the next Tom Reilly (albeit a helluva lot more likable).
- With 5 candidates, if all the progressives in the district line up for Eldridge, he wins.
- Furthermore, while he isn't from one of the larger cities in the district, he's the only person from his entire area and the people in the large cities are going to divide their support (i.e. Donoghue and Tsongas in Lowell).
- Primaries have low turnout, especially those that take place in the summer. Special elections tend to be even lower turnout. I wonder how high the turnout is going to be the day after Labor Day? Because that's when this election is taking place. Who's going to show up at the ballots during a Labor Day Special Election Primary? The people genuinely excited about their candidate - or the people who would normally vote based on name recognition or even region?
- Eldridge may not be that far down in the polls today, with an entire summer to make up whatever the minute difference is. I've heard several rumors that in Tsongas's internals, he's pulling a close second.
So there we go. Jamie Eldridge is going to win this thing - in this blogger's eyes. However, I will remind all primary voters to vote your heart. Whoever wins this primary will win this race, even if it's someone scary like Meceli (pro-life and anti-gay). So, like in almost any other primary in Massachusetts, I'm giving my annual reminder: don't vote based on any preconceived electability that may or may not be true, vote for the person you think will best serve the 5th Congressional District, Massachusetts and - most importantly of all - America.
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8 comments:
So, back to the subject of Ryan's credibility. How much longer are we going to have to deal with the Chris M. rant floating off to the side?
:)
You mean the ads? Sheesh, are you telling me there's Kris Mineau ads on that google ad thing? Yikes.
I'll have to see if i can stop it.
Name one candidate you picked to win who started as an underdog and wound up winning other than Deval Patrick. In fact, just try writing a complete sentence without saying "Deval Patrick."
Jamie Eldridge does need tons of cash, as does any candidate for Congress, and as did your boyfriend Deval Patrick. (Yes, I know, he was a renegade outsider...except that he spent millions on his race just like everyone else, and his corporate connection are what got him off the ground to start with.)
The fact that the blogosphere is behind him is meaningless to 99% of the people in the 5th district.
The DFA poll only polled DFA members, which means that it is hardly representative of all 5th district voters.
I'm sure Tsongas and Feingold are trembling in their shoes at the notion that you and Lynne are lined up with Eldridge. Yeah right, that's the best news they've gotten all week.
Try looking at your page via FireFox or Safari. There's a floating video of Chris Matthews off to the side. I'm guessing you have a mismatched tag or something.
Chris appears to have used the resulting tear in the universe to summon "normal human being" from HubPolitics or another of the local circles of heck.
Actually, Niki Tsongas's press secretary pressed very hard for my support. She sent numerous emails and introduced Niki to me personally. One of the reasons why I actually LIKE Niki Tsongas is because she's paying attention to the blogosphere - which, believe it or not, are often her constituents.
Like I said in my peice, I don't know whether the blogs lining up behind Eldridge is influential or a sign of a larger movement. However, it does matter... whether that's in a reflective sense or in a proactive sense, I don't know. But, believe you me, each of the candidates appreciates support - and tries hard to get it - in the blogosphere, as they should.
As for your other insinuations, my campaign has only endorsed 4 candidates: Eldridge, Deval Patrick, John Bonifaz and Phil Dunkelbarger. Dunkelbarger I knew was a long shot, but it was a test of morals - so I came out and said Steve Lynch was wrong for the 9th District. Bonifaz was a candidate I really expected to gain traction, but he didn't get large-scale blogger support till Galvin started ditching the debates... which was far into the race. Furthermore, the blogs were behind Deval first and foremost, so Bonifaz didn't get their full attention. I was one of the few really spent time blogging the Bonofaz race.
So, in reality, I guess that makes me 1/1 in terms of blog endorsements... if you are into scoring. However, I'm into saying what's right, which is why I support Eldridge. It's the right decision. It just so happens that I also think he's going to win.
Oh, god, I just checked firefox... eww.
I don't have the slightest clue how to fix that. It was the youtube i posted, but for some reason it got put to the side. That's never happened before.
Where to start... I respect everyone's position and right to endorse a candidate. The world of the blogs is interesting but not representative of voters in general. Most people identify themselves as moderates - I know, an ugly phrase in this side of the blog world.
Jamie is extremely liberal. A significant part of this district has voted for Weld and Celluci. (Sad, but true). Jamie's for the government doing everything. That's so 60's. He's even for our government taking responsibility for Mexico's economy. Government will unilaterally solve health care, energy, pension issues, etc. Where will all this money come from?
Here's a bulletin - the government doesn't pay itself taxes and rarely generates productive capital as private businesses do. And yes, there are bad businesses, but there are good community minded one's too. I don't think the government that gave us Katrina and Iraq should be 100% responsible for my health or my job. I like Paul Tsongas theories when it comes to not killing the golden goose and expecting more from businesses.
Which brings us to the candidate I'm supporting, Niki Tsongas. I'm sure you're suprised. No, Niki may not be the hero of the idealistic left. She's genuine, caring and has been a great contributor to every community and group she's been involved with. She is not a politician, which is okay in my book. Her policies are progressive. She has the confidence of the last several Congressmen to serve here, plus Barney Frank. She can hit the ground running. She can deliver for the district.
What is Jamie saying about economic development? How can he sit down at a table with serious businesses and land jobs? How can he fight for defense related grants or research? How will he revitalize a main street or deal with the burdens of 20 different languages in our schools? I'm from Lowell and THESE are real issues.
Yes, I'm for getting out of Iraq and reducing greenhouse emissions. But I'd like my kids to have a job too. In Lowell and Lawrence and Haverhill its about public- private investment; practical solutions and not just ideology.
In terms of polls, whoever is feeding you this stuff is pulling your chain. Jamie may be second in Concord and Acton, but he doesn't even have enough name recognition to register in Lawrence, Methuen and Haverhill. So there's no way he's a close second to Tsongas. If he was, he'd have leaked his polling long before now.
We need - and the nation does too -a Democrat in the Fifth District seat. The Democratic clout in the House is at stake here. Might be nice to have a woman too after 25 years. To do this in October, we have to be able to hit back and outspend the Republicans who will be flooding money into the Ogonowski (win the war) campaign. That too will be a short campaign and will take dollars, organization and a consensus builder.
So I'm not knocking anyone for endorsing Jamie or Barry or even Jim Miceli, but give me a solid Democrat with appeal across the board and the decency and character to make us proud and also to bring home the bacon. Go Niki go. Yes, I'm a volunteer for Niki. And Ryan, thanks for the pretty nice words.
Grizzled Veteran
Hey Grizzled Vet,
Thanks for the reply.
What I'd like to remind you is that this post was about who is going to win the primary election, where voters are going to trend far more liberal than average (especially during a low turnout primary like this one will be, on an off year, special election on the day after labor day).
Like I've said on a number of occasions, I really like Niki Tsongas. Initially, I thought I was going to support her. However, Eldridge is really great on the issues and has shown he's a great leader. I think he has what it takes to win and will pull it out.
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